Public confidence in Kenya’s Broad-Based Government arrangement has surged in recent months, largely following the passing of opposition leader Raila Odinga, a new national survey shows, though almost half of the population remains uneasy about its impact on democratic accountability.
The TIFA Research survey, conducted in mid-November 2025, indicates that support for the partnership between President William Ruto and the late Odinga has risen from 22 per cent in May to 44 per cent in November.
The report suggests that many citizens are embracing the prospect of political stability, even as questions persist about whether the cooperation between government and opposition is diluting traditional roles.
A majority of those who back the arrangement say their approval is motivated by a desire for national unity rather than the government’s policies or economic performance. Among supporters, 72 per cent identified reducing ethnic tensions and fostering cohesion as their main reason for support.
“Many Kenyans appear willing to prioritise peace and stability over traditional political competition,” the survey notes.
Another 11 per cent of supporters said the arrangement has contributed to governance stability and legitimacy, while 10 per cent hope it will lead to more equitable distribution of resources across regions.
The shift in approval is most notable in areas that were previously strongholds of opposition politics. Support in Western Kenya rose by 31 points to 62 per cent, while Nyanza saw an increase of 25 points to 59 per cent.
“These regions appear to have reassessed their relationship with the state following Raila Odinga’s final political choices and subsequent passing,” the report states.
Ongoing Concerns
Despite the increased support, 48 per cent of Kenyans remain critical of the Broad-Based Government, seeing it as a potential threat to checks and balances.
Corruption was the primary worry, with 35 per cent of critics saying the arrangement encourages personal gain and rent-seeking. Another 31 per cent expressed concern that the absorption of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) into the ruling coalition has weakened opposition oversight.
“The swallowing of the largest opposition party has weakened oversight and created confusion about who is responsible for holding government accountable,” the report observes.
Other critics pointed to a lack of transparency and limited public input (16 per cent) and the government’s failure to ease economic pressures on ordinary citizens (13 per cent).
Support Not Linked to Policies
The survey also revealed that supporters did not cite any of the government’s flagship projects, including the Hustler Fund, Affordable Housing initiative, or Social Health Authority reforms, as reasons for backing the arrangement.
“This suggests that support for the Broad-Based Government is largely symbolic and political, rather than performance-driven,” the TIFA report concludes.
